The Political Conundrum!

A written report released yesterday and an oral briefing provide expert and eyewitness testimony about the security improvements in Iraq and the potential that lack of political progress could imperil the country's security and result in a renewed Sunni insurgency.

John Nagl, Colin Kahl, and Shawn Brimley of the Center for a New American Security briefed a group of invited guests on their findings during their recent trip to Iraq. They traveled there at the invitation of General Petraeus and received high-level briefings, visited multiple provinces, and spoke with numerous Iraqi politicians and citizens. Nagl recently retired after 20 years in the U.S. Army, and his last assignment was as Commanding Officer of 1st Battalion, 34th Armor at Fort Riley, Kansas. He led a tank platoon in Operation Desert Storm and served as the operations officer of a tank battalion task force in Operation Iraqi Freedom. A West Point graduate and Rhodes Scholar, Nagl earned his doctorate from Oxford University, and contributed to the Army's new Counterinsurgency Field Manual.

They discussed the continued operations near Mosul against Al Qaeda, whose attacks there was discussed on August 4 and on May 31 by Evan Kohlmann. Al Qaeda is estimated to have 800-900 personnel near Mosul. Although infiltration from Anbar province has been sharply reduced, more US combat forces might be needed in Mosul, in part because we are not yet seeing the local support that we have received in Anbar. Overall, the north is still in the "clearing" phase, one to two years behind the rest of country. Al Qaeda is more sophisticated there than it was in Anbar; they aren't targeting civilians (see Evan's May 3 post on the allegations by other Sunni groups) and they're positioning themselves as "protectors of the Sunni way of life" against "Kurdish ambitions."

They three described the security improvements in Iraq brought about by the surge as "remarkable," and Al Qaeda and Iranian militant groups have been degraded and are not a viable strategic threat at this point. But their opinion is that very few of the fundamental political grievances have been resolved.

They described Prime Minister Maliki as "slowrolling" the integration of Sunnis and not reconciling with the most important Sunni groups. They cited the lack of accommodation with the "Sons of Iraq" (SoI), a group of thousands of Sunnis with whom U.S. forces have forged constructive relationships in the past two years. We are paying many of the SoI and want to place 16,000 into the Iraqi Security Forces by the end of this year, but the Interior Ministry has accepted only 600 so far (see this Long War Journal article on the SoI and this National Review Online article in March). The briefers described a vetting process by which we give the Interior Ministry the names of candidates, but only Shia candidates are accepted, not the SoI.

The latest edition of "The Iraq Report" by the Institute for the Study of War and the Weekly Standard details the positive impact of the U.S.-SoI relationship in clearing Al Qaeda out of Diyala.

In a move that could embroil the United States deeper into the conflict between Russia and Georgia, the Pentagon has flown in a team of military experts to determine the extent of Russian military control over Georgia's roads, sea ports and airports and to assess how deep of a humanitarian crisis the war has created.

National Guard and Reserve combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are more likely to develop drinking problems than active-duty soldiers, a new military study suggests. The authors speculate that inadequate preparation for the stress of combat and reduced access to support services at home may be to blame.

A military judge on Thursday barred a Pentagon official from taking part in a second war crimes trial at Guantanamo Bay, providing more ammunition for detainee lawyers who allege that political interference taints the proceedings.

A federal appeals court has ruled that Saudi Arabia and four of its princes cannot be held liable in the Sept. 11 attacks.

U.S. Army National Guard soldiers from farm states are hoping to fight terrorism and grow Afghanistan's farm economy, one legitimate crop at a time.

Six sailors have been accused of abusing detainees at a U.S. detention center in Iraq, including sealing prisoners in a cell filled with pepper spray, the U.S. Navy said Thursday.

Famed chef Julia Child shared a secret with Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg and Chicago White Sox catcher Moe Berg at a time when the Nazis threatened the world. hey served in an international spy ring managed by the Office of Strategic Services.

Russian troops began pulling out today from this hub on Georgia's main east-west highway, Georgia's Interior Ministry said, where the soldiers' presence raised fears that Russia would challenge a shaky cease-fire agreement.

There's been a change of heart at American Airlines Inc. After several days of negative attention, the Fort Worth-based carrier said Aug. 13 that, effective immediately, it will waive its longstanding fees for a third checked bag for military personnel on active duty.