The Political Conundrum!

The SITE Intelligence Group has issued a press release that a new speech is forthcoming from Al Qaeda's #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, containing eulogies for two recently killed Al Qaeda commanders, Abu Khabab al-Masri (a.k.a. Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar) and Abu Abdullah al-Shami, an escapee from Bagram prison in July 2005 and killed last month in a U.S. strike. I posted about al-Masri's reported death on July 28, and Evan Kohlmann posted the NEFA Foundation's transcript of Al Qaeda's acknowledgement of that on August 6.

The value of this message is that it is final confirmation that the head of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, was not killed in a Pakistani strike as reported on August 12, as deduced by his signature on this message and his exclusion from the names of the eulogized. The American intel community never supported that report, as I noted in the update to my post.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy vowed Wednesday that French troops would stick it out in Afghanistan despite an exceptionally deadly attack and frustration at home about the war.

Russian forces on Wednesday built a sentry post just 30 miles from the Georgian capital, appearing to dig in to positions deep inside Georgia despite pledges to pull back to areas mandated by a cease-fire signed by both countries.

The Navy has reversed course and decided to push for construction of a third stealth destroyer, Sen. Susan Collins said yesterday.

The United States and Poland signed a deal Wednesday to place a U.S. missile defense base just 115 miles from Russia - a move followed swiftly by a new warning from Moscow of a possible military response.

The United States and Poland signed a deal Wednesday to place a U.S. missile defense base just 115 miles from Russia's westernmost fringe - a move that has escalated tensions with an already agitated Moscow, despite Washington's insistence the site is purely defensive.

The increasingly sophisticated attacks by the Taliban against U.S. and NATO troops, including the recent coordinated strikes that left 10 French soldiers dead shows how the Taliban has evolved over the past year.

What is clear is that, whatever the strategy there is, it is not working. I would argue that the almost exponential growth rate of opium cultivation in recent years is the vital component in allowing the Taliban to obtain the resources to replenish its fighting capabilities, which were almost destroyed in the wake of 9/11.

This source of income to the Taliban is free from any controls a state sponsor would be able to impose on the use of donated funds. The commodity can be easily exchanged for weapons, or turned into cash to pay for new recruits, training, protection and logistics. A consequence, in addition to the sophisticated frontal attacks, is the rapid growth of increasingly sophisticated road side bombs, now causing the most casualties of any weapon in Afghanistan.

Given that the cash pipeline is not being attacked in any way that is making a significant difference, the plans for a mini surge there, with additional U.S. troops is unlikely to make a key difference.

As US News reported, Some U.S. military officials express skepticism, however, about the impact more U.S. troops can make seven years into the war, in a large country that has grown increasingly violent—with citizens, they add, who are increasingly disillusioned. "I don't know if it's too late," says a senior military official. "But it's going to be much, much harder to turn things around at this point."

In fact, what is alarming in the discussions of the surge in Afghanistan is the almost-total lack of focus on opium revenues as a key component.

If one looks at two recent cases where there has been measurable and important successes against non-state armed groups (Al Qaeda in Iraq and the FARC in Colombia), one of the key components is the shutting off of financial revenues. My full blog is here.

The Air Force is on track to select a winner this fall on a disputed $15 billion combat search and rescue helicopter deal originally won by Boeing, despite an ongoing review by Pentagon investigators, a senior service official said Aug. 19.

An attorney for hundreds of Kentucky families forced to sell their farms to the Army during World War II argued in federal court Aug. 19 that government agents bullied them into accepting bad deals in the wake of Pearl Harbor.

The Bush White House and the Pentagon are at odds over whether to station a Navy ship in the Black Sea to demonstrate U.S. support for the embattled Georgian military and government, two defense officials told McClatchy Newspapers on Tuesday.