The Political Conundrum!

Three years ago, as the Hurricane Katrina disaster unfolded, we were the first site in the counterterrorism niche to point out the obvious negative implications for our ability to protect the homeland from terrorist attack or to recover from one (see Bill West's and Walid Phares' observations at that time). Since then, we've read numerous government reports and hearings indicating continued trouble in DHS operations and homeland security planning, including several just last month. So as Hurricane Gustav approached, it was reasonable to wonder if FEMA, DHS, and the states could pull off a mass evacuation in time and then recover quickly. The evacuation proceeded smoothly, the recovery efforts are underway with efficiency, and all parties involved deserve our congratulations for a job well done. It helped that Gustav weakened to the point that the New Orleans levees weren't breached, but everyone seemed prepared for that possibility. While DHS is still not capable of protecting the U.S. against important threats, it looks like FEMA is ready for whatever comes.

One sector about which I had no concerns was the financial services sector, which has been the best at protecting and recovering its critical infrastructure in this decade. In this post on November 30, 2006, I discussed in detail the quick reaction by the sector to several disasters, from the 9-11 attacks to the great Northeast blackout of 2003. The sector made still more improvements in the Gulf region following Hurricane Katrina. So we shouldn't be surprised that no one suffered any inability to gain access to their financial assets during Hurricane Gustav.

FDD's Center for Terrorism Research, which I direct, is proud to introduce an important new regular feature, our Voices of the Awakening project. Iraq's Awakening movement, which originated in the Anbar province, was one of the keys to the turnaround that the country has experienced since January 2007. This collection of Sunni tribesmen, Iraqi nationalists, ex-Baathists, and others, took great risks to help drive al-Qaeda from their country; many members of the Awakening, and their families, lost their lives in the struggle. Though the Awakening—which remains a potent force in Iraq—is often discussed by Western analysts, often the voice of the movement itself is absent from the discussion.

Thus, the Center for Terrorism Research is introducing a new feature by Sterling Jensen, a foremost expert on the Awakening. Jensen, who is currently enrolled in a Master's program at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, worked as an Army contract linguist from the spring of 2006 to June 2007. He was heavily involved in the U.S. government's tribal engagements as the Anbar Awakening formed in the fall of 2006. He then returned to Anbar in February 2008 as the Marines' first ever civilian Foreign Area Officer, tasked with facilitating the First Marine Expeditionary Force's relations with Awakening leadership, religious leaders, and foreign regime elements. Jensen's contacts in the Awakening are unparalleled, as is his knowledge of the movement. The Voices of the Awakening project will feature his observations and analysis, which will include critical translations of Awakening news and documents, as well as occasional interviews with the movement's leaders.

The first installment of the series can be found here, featuring discussion of Iraqi defense minister Abdul Qadr Jassim al-Obeidi's visit with Awakening leader Sheikh Ahmad Bezia; statements on the government of Iraq's supposed crackdown on Awakening councils in Baghdad; and information about the second conference of Anbar tribes.

An excerpt:

It is important to differentiate between two different types of Awakening councils. First, Mutammar Sahwat al-Iraq, or the Iraqi Awakening, is a registered national political party that began as the Anbar Awakening tribal movement mid-2006 in Ramadi, Anbar. By early 2007, the Anbar Awakening's popularity grew into other Sunni areas in Baghdad, Salahideen, and Diyala, at the same time coalition forces started recruiting tribal-oriented Sunnis into its Sons of Iraq programs. Many Sons of Iraq program participants organized themselves into self-proclaimed Awakening councils, even though they might not have any official affiliation with the Anbar Awakening. In early 2007, as the Anbar Awakening transitioned into the Iraqi Awakening, many of these other Awakening councils either joined the Iraqi Awakening organization, or just continued operating under their own ad hoc organizations.

Today the GOI [the government of Iraq] has good relations with the Iraqi Awakening, and recognizes it as a legal political entity. However, GOI is weary of self-proclaimed Awakening groups not integrated into the Iraqi Awakening, because some of these groups do not operate according to new Iraqi laws and are not seen as subservient to GOI. Some of these ad hoc Awakening councils/Sons of Iraq are basically former nationalist insurgents whose reason for turning against AQI was purely tactical. The Iraqi Awakening would not necessarily be against GOI cracking down on these groups that work against the party's platform principle of recognizing GOI's authority and allowing only ISF [Iraqi security forces]-approved groups to use weapons.

Soldier chic isn't a new fashion trend, but now consumers will be able to buy officially endorsed military merchandise at their local department store. The U.S. Army has officially licensed its First Infantry Division marks and insignias to Sears.

Vladimir Putin said that Russia will respond calmly to an increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea in the aftermath of the war with Georgia, but promised "there will be an answer." Meanwhile, President Medvedev warned the West that it would lose more than Moscow would if it tried to punish Russia.

Over the years, Sally Ferrell's organized dozens of peace vigils. Find common ground, she has always preached, and any conflict can be resolved. But she's now engaged in a conflict of her own - a dispute over military recruiting in high schools that has polarized a North Carolin county.

Iraqi security forces shot at American boats on the Tigris River north of Baghdad in a friendly fire incident that left six Iraqis dead after U.S. forces returned fire, Iraqi police and security officials said Wednesday.

A federal jury has convicted a retired University of Tennessee professor of passing secrets from a U.S. Air Force contract to two research assistants from China and Iran.

The Washington Institute published a monograph that my colleague Matt Levitt and I edited, on the lecture series we've been hosting at the Institute since December 2007. Speakers have included Juan Zarate, the Deputy National Security Advisor, Mike Leiter, the director of NCTC, Don Kerr, the Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, and Charlie Allen, DHS Undersecretary for Intelligence and Analysis. The monograph includes the prepared remarks of the first seven of the senior US government counterterrorism officials who spoke at the Institute, as well as an assessment that Matt and I wrote on the themes that emerged from the series.

While the series covered a broad spectrum of terrorism-related topics, ranging from terrorism financing to the threat of nuclear terrorism, three major themes emerged: how the threat facing the US has evolved, how the US has adapted its counterterrorism approach, and how the US has revised its governmental structure to address these threats.

As the lecture series made clear, the next administration will have many serious challenging in confronting the rapidly evolving threats posed by al-Qaeda and its affiliates, as well as Hizballah, Hamas and others. The next administration will also inherit and bureacratic structure still very much in transition. As Mike Leiter acknowledged, "the single, overarching challenge -- and the one that I believe looms larges -- is institutionalizing all of the progress we have made in working across the US government on counterterrorism." The next administration will also have to decide whether to continue to established approach of the current administration, including the fairly recent shift in communication strategy and the more complete integration of all elements of power into counterterrorism efforts.

The Army today said all Fort Carson, Colo., Soldiers wear their body armor and helmets on patrol In Iraq, including a 3rd Brigade Combat Team Soldier whose family said he was killed after being told he didn't need a protective vest for a "friendly" patrol.