The Political Conundrum!

Co-blogger Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Kyle Dabruzzi recently co-authored an interesting report on how firefighters can play an enhanced counter-terror role. His report reminded me of some preliminary research I had done on terrorist use of fire in the wake of the 2007 forest fires in Greece that killed 63 people and did hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage. Putting these two items together suggests another possible counter-terror role for fire-fighters.

Fire Next Time?

Fire is certainly capable of causing substantial damage either to specific targets and, if the conditions are right, as a virtual WMD. Several of the worst disasters in U.S. history were fires, including the Great Chicago Fire in 1871 and the fires triggered by the San Francisco earthquake in 1906 destroyed entire cities. As recently as 1991 a firestorm in Oakland killed 25, did $1.5 billion in damage, and decimated 1520 acres within a major American city. Additionally, fire has the potential to trigger a cascading disaster. A fire might also lead to utility outages or reach new dimensions of scale if it reaches a sensitive site.

Fire has some advantages as a tool for terrorists. First, it is a basic mantra among TV newspeople, “The camera loves fire.” As a means of garnering media attention, fire has tremendous potential. (Consider the endless footage of the fire at the Glasgow airport from the summer 2007 terror plot.)

Fire is also technically easy. Although it is conventional wisdom that bomb-making techniques can be gleaned off of the Internet - the actual record of self-starting cells as bomb-makers is not very good. The successful plots have had links to real world training.

Interestingly, in light of its apparent ease of use, based on these graphs from the Global Terrorism Database at the University of Maryland’s Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (with which I have no affiliation), fire does not appear to be the terror weapon of choice.

Read the complete post here.

The NATO military commander in Afghanistan has ordered the nearly 60,000 international soldiers in his force to refrain from attacking insurgents for 24 hours over the UN "Peace Day" on Sunday.

A U.S. military official said a mechanical problem appeared to be the reason for a helicopter crash Thursday that killed seven American soldiers in Iraq's southern desert, the deadliest such incident in Iraq in more than a year.

To the world it might be called a robot ship, but its proper name is the Unmanned Surface Vehicle. The Navy expects it to be a major tool in countering what officials think is a growing threat posed by quiet diesel-powered submarines owned by rogue nations.

Salahaddin province deputy governor denounced on Friday a US forces raid in the northern Iraqi province, which left eight people dead, describing the operation as "tragic".

I am not a Russia expert, but it is clear that the Putin-led government is going out of its way to antagonize the United States and its allies. One of the primary, and most dangerous methods, is the sale of billions of dollars of sophisticated weaponry to state sponsors of terrorism, particularly Iran and Venezuela.

These just happen to be the two states most intent on inflicting as much harm as possible on the United States and its allies, as well as the two governments funding the unrest that has pushed Bolivia to the brink of civil war and actions that are turning Nicaragua into the pariah state.

As the Times of London notes,the sales include anti-aircraft missiles and top of the line fighter jets, due in production in 2010.

It is interesting to note that Russia's deputy prime minister, Igor Sechin, one of the closest allies of Mr Putin, the Prime Minister, visited Venezuela and Cuba this week. Sechin is widely reported to be the main backer of Viktor Bout, the notorious weapons trafficker in prison in Thailand, awaiting an extradition hearing next week to determine if he will be handed over to the United States to stand trial.

(In an ominous sign that Bout's extradition will not be approved, the Thai appellate court, for the first time this week, rejected a U.S. extradition request. This one was for Jamshid Ghassemi, an Iranian indicted in the United States for acquiring dual-use equipment and accelerometers for Iran's nuclear program. The court ruling gave no reasons for its decision, which is unappealable, and foul play is suspected.

There are several parallels to the Bout case, where the Russians have been offering large financial inducements, oil deals and preferential weapons deals in exchange for Bout's freedom. Another terrorist supplier under Russian protection.)

The justification for Russia's behavior seems to be that it is now threatened by U.S. and Western European involvement in former Soviet republics. The general deterioration in the U.S.-Russia relationship is likely to have widespread impact.

That may explain Russia's desire to project force into the Western hemisphere, as it did by flying two TU 160s, the world's largest supersonic bomber, to Venezuela. It does not, however, explain the desire to arm regimes with a history of violence and state sponsorship of terrorism against their neighbors. My full blog is here.

NATO-led troops have killed an ally of President Hamid Karzai in southern Afghanistan during an overnight gunbattle, officials said. The Afghan president said the death resulted from a "misunderstanding between foreign and local forces."

The Navy is now one vessel closer to reaching its goal of a fleet of 313 ships. But the lingering question on the minds of shipbuilders is: Will the service buy more?

A Coast Guard officer who repeatedly sneaked into a Stafford County, Va., teenager's room to have sex with her pleaded guilty to six charges Sept. 18, and faces up to 55 years in jail when he is sentenced Dec. 5.

In an about face from three months ago, the military has agreed to review security threats to NORAD after a government oversight agency found vulnerabilities hadn't been fully assessed before the U.S. and Canadian air, space and maritime warning command was moved from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base.