The Political Conundrum!

During this summer lectures-tour in Europe, I have discussed my most recent book The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad at the invitation of the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based Project for "Democratic Geopolitics." In one of the discussion themes I argued that in the end, there are strong Jihadi lobbies which are derailing international and US efforts to defeat the Terrorist forces. I advanced a summary of a number of strategy recommendations among them: Identify the threat doctrine clearly; achieve energy independence; create wider alliances with countries suffering from the same threat even if they are not part of the Iraq or even Afghanistan coalitions; grant significant support to democracy forces within the Arab and Muslim world.

The summary of the round table which included think tanks representatives as well as members of several Government ministries was filed by the Henry Jackson Society as follow:

Today FDD's Center for Terrorism Research brings you the fourth installment of our Voices of the Awakening series, authored by Sterling Jensen. The series is designed to provide Westerners a better understanding of ongoing developments in Iraq's Awakening movement. This regular feature includes critical translations of Awakening news and documents, Jensen's observations and analysis, and occasional interviews with the movement's leaders.

This week the Iraqi Awakening's reporting focused on two main issues related to the upcoming provincial elections: the Awakening's relationship with the Government of Iraq (GOI), and leadership principles that should guide a new democratic Iraq. An excerpt:

In three separate reports, the Iraqi Awakening clarifies its relationship with the GOI. First, in "The Iraqi Awakening: an Objective Position," the Awakening differentiates itself from the Sons of Iraq program. It states that while those in the program have not been adequately treated by Iraqi politicians, the Sons of Iraq program is not the same as the Iraqi Awakening. The Iraqi Awakening grew out of the Anbar Awakening, where it played an important role in strengthening the Iraqi army, police, and security agencies. It is not a group of militias, as some Iraqi politicians have claimed. Only the Iraqi Security Forces are in charge of security, and not extrajudicial armed groups. The Iraqi Awakening is a registered political party and encourages political participation....

In a second article entitled "The Awakening: Deserving the Vote," the Iraqi Awakening explains to voters why it believes it deserves their vote. It says that the Awakening will be one of the many parties participating in the upcoming provincial elections, elections that they hope will be fair and transparent for all parties or individuals running. A rhetorical question is asked: "who made not only Anbar secure, but all of Iraq?" The answer: "The sons of the tribes as represented in the Iraqi Awakening. The Iraqi Awakening should not be regarded only as an organization that became a political party, but rather as the essence of those who stood up against injustice and brought back life, law, and institutions. Parties should join the list with the Iraqi Awakening because had the Awakening not brought back life and security, there would be no elections for everyone to compete in." ....

INSIDER'S PERSPECTIVE: While the details of the upcoming elections are still not set, the Iraqi Awakening has started its campaign to solicit voters. The Awakening in Anbar has regular tribal leader visits not only from Sunnis from Baghdad, Salahideen or Diyala, but also regular visits from Shia tribal leaders from Southern Iraq. Arab tribes and former regime elements are the Iraqi Awakening's targeted base. They believe that combining a strong traditional Iraqi identity with educated nationalist technocrats will transcend sectarian lines, and resonate with voters. The Iraqi Awakening leadership is convinced that the political parties running Iraq are heavily influenced by regional interests and not Iraqi interests. More importantly, however, the Awakening believes that change will come through political reform, and not by violence. For the Iraqi Awakening, it is paramount that the coming elections be fair and without regional influence. These themes are often repeated in the Awakening's reporting.

For the entire Voices of the Awakening update, click here. Tomorrow Jensen will provide analysis of the recent media reports about infighting within the Awakening movement, such as this article that was noted in the CT Blog's Newslinks.

Jihadists greatly encourage their followers to perpetrate suicide attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. That is why numerous Muslim countries were fearing attacks in September.
Unsurprisingly, al-Qaida pulled off three major attacks in the last week: one in Mauritania that killed 12, one in Yemen against the U.S. embassy and one in Pakistan against the Marriott hotel.
I wrote an article for Asia Times on Yemen.

Here is an excerpt:
In 2003, the Yemeni regime concluded a non-aggression pact with al-Qaeda. But it seems that the deal has been off since the beginning of this year. Appearing officially in January under the label "Al-Qaeda in the south of the Arabian Peninsula - Brigades soldiers of Yemen", the local al-Qaeda branch has already claimed numerous attacks against security forces.

The Italian Embassy was attacked in April, and since then most Western countries have decided to "bunkerize" their buildings in Yemen. The US has reduced its presence in the country to a bare minimum, and the French ambassador has permanent bodyguards, like in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Tourists are strongly advised not to travel to Yemen. Some expatriates are not allowed to venture out of the capital or go to certain neighborhoods, except when they have a specific task and an armed guard.

In the past month, Yemeni authorities have been more aggressive in fighting al-Qaeda's resurgence. In August al-Qaeda leader Hamza al-Quayti, who was one of a gang of 23 that escaped from prison in February 2006, was killed by security forces in eastern Yemen. Other members of his cell were killed during the operation.

The Yemeni Defense Ministry said the activists had formed a cell that "planned to carry out terrorist attacks in Yemen and abroad". Police found explosives, documents and Arab passports (including two Saudi ones). This cell was responsible for an attack that killed eight Spanish tourists and two Yemeni guides in July 2007.

You can read the full article here.

In further fallout from the nuclear scandals that have plagued a beleaguered Air Force, the Pentagon is set to announce Thursday afternoon that at least seven general officers -- including at least one three-star general -- and five to seven colonels have been disciplined in connection with nuclear lapses.

Senior NATO commander General John Craddock called for alliance troops to step up the fight against Afghanistan's drugs trade as he ended a three-day visit to the country Wednesday, his office said.

North Korea barred U.N. nuclear inspectors from its main nuclear reactor on Wednesday and within a week plans to reactivate the plant that once provided the plutonium for its atomic test explosion, the chief U.N. nuclear inspector said.

The U.S. government is more than quadrupling monthly payments to some veterans who suffer brain injuries, as the number of such war wounds mounts from the roadside bombings of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Belgium may be best known for fine shotguns, rich chocolate and tasty waffles, but this quaint little country is also the home of the world's finest major-caliber battle rifle, the FN-FAL. Renowned throughout the world for its rugged reliability, the FAL was manufactured in 10 countries in its heyday and issued to over 70 armies.

Yesterday a New York jury convicted Bashir Noorsai, a Taliban-linked drug trafficker of being part of an international conspiracy to sell heroin around the world, including the United States.

The case is noteworthy because Noorsai had developed strong ties to the Taliban, and was a pioneer in forging the drug trafficking alliance that now funds the Taliban's rapid expansion.

Prosecutors said Mr. Noorzai developed a relationship with the Taliban, paying it 10 percent of his drug profits and turning over arms and fighters in return for being allowed to continue his drug operations even after the Taliban banned opium production in 2000.

Noorsai was close to the Taliban's Mullah Omar, the one-eyed leader of the Islamist movement that sheltered Omama bin Laden and then allied with him. It was this alliance between Omar and Noorsai that has helped the Taliban rearm, replenish its worn-out weapons stocks, upgrade it communications systems and greatly improve its logistical operations. My full blog is here.

Up to three more combat brigades could be available to go to Afghanistan beginning next spring, in answer to repeated calls from commanders for more troops, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says.