The Political Conundrum!

One of the most fascinating dramas unfolding, apart from the Wall Street meltdown, is the fate of the Ukrainian operated ship, hijacked by Somali pirates and loaded with tanks, anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition.

The hijackers of the ship Faina, a Ukrainian-operated, Belize-flagged vessel, are demanding $20 million ransom for the ship, its crew and contents. Several U.S. ships are maintaining visual contact with the ship to try to insure that none of the 33 T-72 tanks or other high value cargo is offloaded.

"We're deeply concerned about the cargo and we don't want it to go into the wrong hands," a U.S. spokesman said. Well, it seems it is a bit late for that, eh?

The Times of London is reporting that the Somali Islamists are already mobilizing to unload what they can.

“The Islamists have sent pick-ups from Mogadishu to go and collect the gear,” said an analyst with a network of Somali informers. “There's not much they can do with the tanks — they can't get them off — but the rest of the weapons they are trying to move ashore.”

My full blog is here.

Two weeks ago it was reported GAO determined that DHS would not be able to implement the departure control provisions of the US VISIT system. US VISIT, notably covered in the CTB, is the system DHS uses to track the entry of foreign nationals who come to the United States with visas or under the often controversial Visa Waiver Program (another topic covered at length in the CTB). US VISIT, online for some four years, is supposed to have a departure control half. The departure control element should track those aliens who legitimately leave the United States, when and from where they leave and identify those who have not left by the time their temporary authorized period of stay expires. US VISIT departure control, obviously, is a critically important component of immigration and border control and security; yet, it is this departure control provision that has so befuddled DHS. Implementation of US VISIT departure control is also tied to proposed expansion of the Visa Waiver Program, as questionable as that effort may be. It now appears none of it will happen anytime soon.

Iraq has bought 12 new U.S.-built reconnaissance planes, the Defense Ministry said Monday, a small and early step in the country's attempt to reassert itself in air space now controlled by U.S.-led forces.

NATO is trying to fast track a helicopter "trust fund" which could see former Soviet-bloc helicopters upgraded at Western expense to fly British and other allied troops around the battlefield in Afghanistan.

As the UN General Assembly ends its final day of principal level debate, the prognosis for its future work remains both murky and morose. As in the past the world’s ills have been laid plain for world leaders (if they are taking any notice) to see. Yet, there is still no sign that the divisiveness of the international community has, or will diminish. Such is particularly the case for the GA’s treatment of the twin challenges of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. As the statements by the principals now comes to an end, hardened battle lines already mark the difficult negotiations on these issues that are about to begin in the hallways and in the GA’s various committees.

While the GA’s new president, Ex-Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann, called for a General Assembly session of “Reconciliation,” he did little to set a positive tone for furthering constructive discussions on these issues. Rather, his prescription, in his first remarks as GA President, was to blame the United States, Israel, and other Western countries for these challenges to peace. “Any act of terrorism,” he said, “whether or not it is committed by a Government, engenders more terrorism. Initiatives to stop this vicious cycle must begin at the level of State terrorism.” And he wasn’t talking about the state-supported terrorism of such countries Iran, Syria, Sudan, or other countries that provide direct funding to support international terrorist organizations such as Hizbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. He was referring to the coalition forces and efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Israel’s responses to attacks from Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. His conclusion, “terrorism by powerful States against relatively weak States must stop.”

Brockmann’s opening statement also underscores continued resistance on the part of many countries in the Middle East, and among certain iconoclastic states such as Venuezela and Nicaragua, to achieve a workable consensus definition of terrorism and a Comprehensive Anti Terrorism Convention - efforts that have preoccupied the General Assembly and its Sixth Committee for over a decade. Rather, they reject the approach Western Democracies have taken in these negotiations to concentrate on terrorism as a distinct issue. Instead, they seek to stalemate the issue by including within the definition of terrorism forceful actions undertaken by countries which are now already the subject of the Laws of War and Conventions on Human Rights. They also seek to exempt so-called ‘”freedom fighters,” from a definition of terrorism, even when they employ terrorist tactics.

Brockmann also criticises Western countries that, in the absence of any effective UN action against terrorist groups, use their own national authority to designate terrorists pursuant to the principles laid down in UN Security Council Resolution 1373. He admonishes that :
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No State should appropriate the right to decide on its own which States are terrorists or sponsors of terrorism, and which are not. Less still should States that are guilty of wars of aggression, the worst form of terrorism imaginable, presume to arrogate that right unto themselves, and further, to unilaterally take action against those it has stigmatized.”

Brockmann’s words concerning nuclear proliferation are no less disturbing. The precondition he sets for achieving any success against further proliferation of nuclear weapons (eg Iran, North Korea et al), is for those possessing such weapons to first begin to dismantle and destroy their own nuclear arsenals. This has long been the mantle behind which those states now seeking to develop their own nuclear weapons capabilities usually hide. He says:

“Non-proliferation can not be used by those possessing nuclear arsenals as a ploy to divert attention from and to shrug off their obligation as a State to disarm. Taking steps in this direction would demonstrate to the rest of the world that they are genuine in their commitment to address what is still one of the gravest threats to Humanity’s survival.”

If these are the concepts and positions that are to be carried over to the upcoming Sixth Committee discussions on the definition of terrorism, and the work of the General Assembly on Proliferation, little real progress should be expected from the General Assembly on these issues during this important 63rd Session.

An alarming number of suicides among Houston-based Army recruiters -- including two in recent weeks -- has prompted calls by a senator and veterans' advocates for closer scrutiny of high-stress recruiting duty during wartime.

The Navy has decided that a controversial sonar training range it proposed building off North Carolina's coast would be better located off Florida. The switch in preference may prove to be just as troublesome for the Navy.

The chain reaction seems to be set for a wider series of bombings, Terror attacks and security developments in Lebanon and Syria. Today a car bomb killed a number of Lebanese soldiers in Northern Lebanon, just a day after an explosion killed a number of Syrians near Damascus. The pace of deterioration is fast but one can quickly read into the timetable of statements made by the Assad regime regarding these events. As I advanced in an earlier post on CTB, the head of the Syrian regime has been focusing on Northern North for few weeks now. At a meeting with Lebanon's President, Assad ask him to send forces to the north to crush the Sunni opposition to Syria. Read it: "Either you send the Lebanese Army units (friendly to Hezbollah) that can do it, or else." The the blast in Damascus and a fast Syrian accusation of elements coming from across the borders (Lebanon). In an interview with al Hawadeth weekly -which will be published on Friday-- Assad said "North Lebanon became a real base for extremism and constitutes a danger for Syria.” In other words, an all out preparation for intervention in that part of Lebanon, at some point and in some ways. My projection is that we will continue to see terror violence aimed at providing Syria with alibi to break its isolation and concentrate its fire on Northern Lebanon.

Today I had the following conversation with Thomas Smith again published in the World Defense Review on the Tripoli terror attack against the Lebanese soldiers.

Secretary Chertoff held a press conference on the agremeent signed with the Republic of Estonia to prevent and combat serious crime on September 29, 2008 in Washington, D.C.

On September 29, 2008 U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and U.S. Department of Justice Acting Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division Matthew Friedrich signed an agreement on Enhancing Cooperation in Preventing and Combating Serious Crime (the PCSC Agreement) with Estonian Minister of Interior Jüri Pihl and the Minister of Justice Rein Lang.