The Political Conundrum!

As Governments and private sector analysts are now decrypting the secrets of the Mumbai Jihadi operation and as diplomats are hurrying to head off a crisis between the two Asian nuclear powers, the counter terrorism community within Democracies is focusing on studying the effects of the latest "Urban Jihad" not only on India, but also inside Pakistan, across the region and throughout the free world. In this regard, I am sharing here at the CTB an interview I had with Venkatesan Vembu of the Daily News and Analysis of India. Also I am including in this post a number of TV interviews I had on Fox News over the past few days. The following were short segments on Fox News over the past few days

On Fox News: "Mumbai strike a preemptive move by the Jihadists to trigger an India-Pakistan crisis to ease the pressure on the Taliban - Nov 29, 2008, 18:10

On Fox News with Gregg Jarrett: "Laskar e Taiba was also training in Virginia!" - Nov 27, 2008, 11:23

On Fox News: "Mumbai's operation is a military terrorist operation building for an Urban Jihad" - Nov 26, 2008, 22:58

On Hannity and Colmes on Fox News: "Laskar e Taiba Jihadi terror group has operated in the United States as well" - Nov 26, 2008, 21:15

I was also inteviewed by Sarah Bell of CVC Radio on November 27.

SGT Freedom Episode 47. He is back and kickin’ butt, takin’ names.

Soldiers are heading home after spending more than a year at war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and military health officials are bracing for a surge in brain injuries and psychological problems. Army leaders say they will closely watch Fort Campbell to determine the proper medical staffing levels needed to aid Soldiers.

Originaly Published as 'Agencies yet to learn hard lessons' in Sunday MiD Day, Mumbai, 30-11-2008

FOR almost over sixty hours, Mumbai, the financial capital of India, witnessed a series of terrorist attacks, multiple hostage crisis, mindless killings, fierce gun battles and at the end, a disrupted life. The terrorists have struck major targets including luxury hotels and a Jewish Center frequented by Westerners and elite Indian only to be holed up later inside these buildings with innocent civilians as hostage. Their demand was the safe release of Mujahideen held in Indian prisons. Prior to this, they also have targeted at least seven more places and went on a killing spree on that fateful Wednesday evening.

An unknown outfit, Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, for quite some time now, this name-game has been a part of Pakistan based terror groups' desperate attempt to give a homegrown Indian flavor to this ongoing Jihadi-terrorism in the region. Of course a collusive local hand is quite possible in this sort of terror operations, primarily for logistical support. Looking at the whole incident, it is beyond doubt that these highly trained terrorists have undergone specialised terror training at various camps located somewhere in Pakistan administered Kashmir or Karachi.

As evidences are forthcoming following the arrests of some Pakistani nationals including one Mohammad Ajmal Amir Kasab who was apprehended from the besieged Taj Mahal hotel, the needle of suspicion pointed strongly at the Pakistan-based and Kashmir-centric Islamist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba (Army of the Pure). Even though this LeT denied any hand in this carnage, its footprints are quite evident.

It doesn't take any great wisdom to believe that Pakistan based and Kashmir centric terror tanzeems are behind most of the terrorist acts perpetrated on Indian soil. Among them, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami have been leading from the front in the so called Islamic Jihad against India. With strong Saudi Wahabi link and proximity to the notorious ISI, LeT's activities are not always clandestine in Pakistan. It operates openly with its so called political wing Jamat- ud- Dawa, nurturing dreams for a 'God's government' on the lines of Sharia laws in Pakistan and elsewhere. It preaches Armed Jihad as shortest route to reach god and heaven. LeT is the one which has introduced such type of Fidayeen missions in Jammu and Kashmir and intermittently striking India's heartlands with its tactics of indiscriminate shooting and grenade attacks.

Mumbai is always vulnerable to terrorism and gang violence for its business potential and porous sea coasts. We have experienced number of terrorist attacks in the past including 1993 serial blasts and 2006 serial train blasts. The latest events stand out as the most severe terrorist act. Meanwhile, the death toll in latest Mumbai mayhem has reached 195 including 22 foreign nationals and 15 security forces at the end of the prolonged and biggest terror fight the country has ever seen. While nearly 300 of them sustained physical injuries, millions of them get scarred for life.

There is obviously a growing concern that terrorists have uniquely used all possible types of terror tactics in Mumbai, ranging from hostage taking, driving explosive laden cars, using sea routes, indiscriminately shooting at civilians and using grenades to maximise the damage.

The Mumbai attacks didn't involve suicide bombers, but motivated Fidayeens (death squads), as propagated by Lashkar-e-Toiba which supports the later terror tactics as Islamic. According to JuD/Lashkar-e-Toiba's spokesperson, Abdullah Muntazir, who denied any involvement in Mumbai attacks, said on earlier occasions that a Fidayeen must complete their mission even in the worst circumstances. Quite plausibly Muntazir's definition, who is desperately trying to salvage JuD's public image, matches the recent operations in Mumbai.

Arguably, there has been a massive intelligence failure as Indian security agencies were caught napping again when metropolises like Mumbai, Bangalore and Delhi, country's political and financial centres have always been an obvious target for terrorists who want to cripple the country from all possible fronts. Just after the 9/11 event in the US, Indian intelligence agencies received reports about an ongoing marine training of LeT operatives to infiltrate India's porous sea borders. Again couple of years ago, Indian Coast Guards apprehended Lashkar's seaborne terrorists, off the Mumbai coast. But Indian agencies have never learned the hard lessons. The irony is both Intelligence and security agencies only claim to have uncovered plots and neutralised terror sleeper cells, but never reached to the roots perhaps due to lack of political willingness or technological backwardness.

Always under severe criticism for a weak-kneed response to situations like Mumbai and inept handling of investigations, for the first time, India did not negotiate with terrorists and went on hot pursuit.

At this hour of national crisis, many fear that it could escalate into an Indo-Pakistani crisis as blame game has already begun at the highest level. However, the Islamabad administration has quickly stepped up damage control exercise by promising support in the investigations.

And now the battle is over, the investigating agencies would piece things together to get a clear picture of what had happened and how to fight this menace again in future. One thing is for sure that to outsmart terror groups, like LeT, it has to resort to proper investigations backed by human and technical intelligence rather than only rhetoric, false claims and complacency.

Following the tenets of Journalism 101, the first question about the Mumbai attacks was “who?” Most of the speculation has focused on Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), although their spokesperson and the spokesperson of their political wing (reported by CTBlog’s Evan Kohlmann) have both denied their organization’s involvement. The reality is that the structures supporting this attack go beyond specific organizations.

In a prescient article, “The Supporting Structures of Pakistan’s Proxy War in Jammu & Kashmir,” in the June 2001 issue of Strategic Analysis (a journal of India’s Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis - the article is not a available online) the author, Ajay Darshan Behra argues:

The supporting structures for the proxy war in J&K are much more complex and go beyond Pakistan's unstated policies or strategic objectives. Some of these structures have developed their own dynamics… Since the end of the Cold War, these structures have embedded themselves deeply in the political economy of the region. The Pakistani state does not control them but merely exercises influence over them and is able to exploit them to serve its own strategic designs. It is due to the advantages accruing from these structures that Pakistan has been able to engage India militarily for more than a decade through a proxy war, with little cost to itself. Thus, there may be a grain of truth in Gen Musharraf's statement that the Pakistan Army is unable to stop militants from crossing the LOC. The Pakistani ruling elites are not in complete control of the supporting structures for terrorism, which they have been using for their proxy war in J&K. Because of the above factors, jehad and terrorism in J&K are likely to continue even if the Pakistani ruling elites give assurances about the withdrawal of their support.

The primary factors identified are: the extensive illicit arms trade within Pakistan which ensures that there is an endless supply of weapons, the uncontrollable sources of funding - particularly narcotics trafficking and donations both from within Pakistan and from around the world, and the tens of thousands of radical madrassas that indoctrinate Pakistani youth into radical Islam from Pakistan’s bottomless well of unemployed. The author does not discuss some other related factors, such as the complex geography (particularly the mountainous terrain), which makes controlling substantial parts of the country and particularly the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir a daunting problem.

Read the complete post.

…not a woman.

So these are the brave leaders of our enemy huh? I guess the Taliban does not believe in Lead by Example.

http://www.military.com/news/article/soldiers-kill-very-feminine-commander.html

It’s much too early to identify the group or groups involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack or to place blame for what has occurred. Identification will come with the expert police investigation and intelligence gathering now underway. But, at this stage we are all just involved in a process of speculation - drawing on past experience with terrorist modis operandi to explain what occurred and exploring the various various possibilities and theories. Among the possible culprits being considered are several Pakistan based Islamic extremist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba; Al Qaeda-linked or wannabe groups, and India home grown terrorist groups. One thing appears clear - the attack was well planned and organized, and that requires reliance on a sophisticated network for recruitment, logistics, training and financing. Some Indian terrorist experts suggest that Dawood Ibrahim may well be linked to organizing and financing this attack just as he did for the 1993 Mumbai stock exchange terrorist bombings.

Dawood Ibrahim (birthname Sheikh Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar), for years headed the D-Company which ran a substantial hawala operation out of Mumbai, Karachi and Dubai. He reportedly moved easily between various Islamic extremist groups and Indian crime syndicates, and is believed to have acted as an Al Qaeda surrogate for several financial transactions and arms and drug smuggling deals. He was designated by the US Treasury Department as a global terrorist in October 2003, and listed as an Al Qaeda associate by the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee on November 3, 2003. According to the Treasury Department “Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian crime lord, has found common cause with Al Qaida, sharing his smuggling routes with the terror syndicate and funding attacks by Islamic extremists aimed at destabilizing the Indian government. He is wanted in India for the 1993 Bombay Exchange bombings and is known to have financed the activities of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (Army of the Righteous), a group designated by the United States in October 2001 and banned by the Pakistani Government…” See also Treasury Fact Sheet on Dawood Ibrahim here

Ibrahim's current whereabouts is unknown. He is believed by some to have been given safehaven in Pakistan, perhaps in the Frontier Territories, although there have been some reports of his having been arrested by Pakistan authorities several years ago. Pakistan denies these reports and maintains that he has not been given any safehaven anywhere in Pakistan.

You can find more information about Dawood Ibrahim in articles posted last year by my colleagues Aaron Mannes and Doug Farah.

Spc. Edward Bennett helped detect and detonate roadside bombs in Iraq for almost a year before he realized something was wrong. A brain scan revealed that Bennett suffered from traumatic brain injury, one of the signature combat wounds of the Iraq war.

An Army sergeant with the 82nd Airborne Division was shot and killed inside a Fayetteville apartment building early Friday morning, according to an official with the 18th Airborne Corps.

Indian commandos killed the last remaining gunmen holed up at a luxury Mumbai hotel Saturday, ending a 60-hour rampage that killed 195 people in India's financial capital, as authorities shifted their focus to who was behind the attacks.