The Political Conundrum!

Seeking experience in wartime, President-elect Barack Obama intends to retain Defense Secretary Robert Gates as head of the Pentagon - if only temporarily - and has chosen a retired Marine general to be White House national security adviser, officials say.

President-elect Barack Obama will keep Defense Secretary Robert Gates in that job for at least a year, according to an official familiar the two men's discussions.

Thirteen years after the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Israeli security officials are expressing heightened concern that a new wave of violent extremism among fringe elements in the Jewish settler movement threatens not only Palestinian civilians, but also Israeli national security and the future of any potential peace diplomacy.

The threat of violent extremism among the fringes of the settler movement tends to be cyclical, based closely on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and unilateral Israeli government efforts to dismantle settlements and outposts. For example, the Yediot Aharonot article noted that the ISA recorded 300 strands of intelligence relating to extremist threats on people or public institutions during the July 2000 peace talks at Camp David, when Jerusalem was a centerpiece of negotiations. The number of such threats fell to 100 in the year after the Camp David talks, but in 2005, with the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza looming, the number rose again to 150. Authorities have not indicated how many possible threats they face today, but Diskin has assessed that the fringe elements are "preparing for war."

The full article, co-authored with Becca Wasser, is available here.

Global reactions to Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's controversial condemnation of U.S. President-Elect Barack Obama as a "House Slave" (or, alternatively, "House Negro") have begun to pour in -- including via the top jihad web forums used by Al-Qaida to disseminate its propaganda. Though hardcore Al-Qaida supporters have predictably dismissed any criticism of Dr. al-Zawahiri and are fiercely backing his choice of words, there is a rather ironic (if not entirely unfamiliar) twist to this issue. After observing international press reporting on the incident, these same supporters are now bitterly attacking the media for its "unfair" pro-Obama bias and for deliberately "confusing" the meaning of al-Zawahiri's message.

In related news, Zawahiri's audio statement also appears to have created a palpable, tense confrontation between Al-Qaida and a significant cross-section of African-American Muslims. Several U.S.-based Muslim organizations immediately held press conferences or issued statements to strongly criticize al-Zawahiri and his manipulation of the words of the late Malcolm X. Conversely, these conferences and statements of response have not gone over well within the jihadi community, with some Arabic-speaking commentators issuing angry rants about the apparent treachery of American Muslims, including specifically the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR). One Al-Qaida supporter cautioned his quarrelsome online colleagues, "Brothers, this does not apply to all American Muslims. Do not forget our brother [Adam] Yehiye Gadahn, a naturalized Muslim and U.S. citizen."

With world attention focused on the faltering international financial system, only back page notice is being given to the frightening progress Iran continues to make toward achieving nuclear weapons capability. An expert report now circulating within the halls of the IAEA reportedly indicates that Iran may soon have enough enriched uranium to fuel a bomb. That information is further complemented by Israeli intelligence assessments indicating that Iran’s work on nuclear weapons design and missile delivery systems is also moving apace. The confidential IAEA report is scheduled for further IAEA council discussion on November 27th and subsequent transmittal to the Security Council. In the meantime Iranian President Ahmadinejad continues in the same pattern of strident threats toward Israel and claims that Iran’s nuclear program and intentions are peaceful.

Israel’s outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has reportedly been asked by US officials to hold off taking any steps that could push the Iran nuclear issue back into crisis mode, at least until the Obama Administration is established in office and has had a chance to explore the options. These options range from engaging Iran in discussions a la the EU-Iran negotiating process to threatening (and perhaps even taking) military action. Enhanced political and economic sanctions on Iran also remain a key option. The question is whether any sanctions option can be made to work?

Critics of sanctions vis-à-vis Iran point out that such measures have been ineffective to date. They argue that the current international economic downturn is not conductive to sanctions implementation or enforcement, and doubt that the US will ever achieve Security Council consensus on sanctions measures sufficiently stringent to convince Iran to change course. Yet, Iran may, in fact, now be more vulnerable to sanctions than ever before.

Iran’s economy is already in shambles. The downturn in the price of oil has left Iran’s government with serious budget shortfalls and significantly reduced its ability to support and subsidize its extensive ongoing energy sector and other infrastructure projects. It has also significantly reduced the profit incentives that previously enticed foreign businesses and banks to compete for Iran’s business, even when that meant irritating their American relationships. Iran’s cost of doing business is soaring, and the stepped up measures adopted by the U.S. Treasury Department, and the US campaign to dissuade financial dealings with Iran, are now actually having a significant impact! More and more Western banks are reducing their Iran exposure and pulling out of the Iran marketplace. Even non Western banks in Dubai are beginning to view triangular transactions with Iran more cautiously. These factors may serve to enhance the chances of engaging Iran in a more constructive dialogue on its nuclear program than previously.

The set of sanctions put in place last year by the Security Council were never really designed to have a broad impact on Iran’s economy. Rather, they represented a lowest common denominator approach and targeted only those specific individuals and entities directly related to Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile development programs. The United States was pretty much left on its own to impose broader economic sanctions measures, which, over time, were either digested or circumvented by the Iranian marketplace. The Bush Administration had little success in convincing European countries to join us in this unilateral sanctions approach --at least, until the Treasury Department began to use its extensive leverage over foreign financial institutions, making them fearful of running afoul of our extensive sanctions regulations.

As the Obama Administration looks at its options, it should seriously consider whether it may now be possible, working with our European friends and allies, to engage Iran in a new dialogue backed up with an expanded set of threatened (or applied) sanctions. These measures should be aimed at Iran’s real economic vulnerabilities - its fragile financial system; its energy, transportation and communications sectors; and its urban commercial class. This commercial class is key to holding Iranian urban unemployment figures from plummeting, and may well represent Iran's Achilles heel.

With the substantial decline in the price of oil, and with international financial institutions now scrambling to bolster their balance sheets with government guarantees and bailouts, the US may be in a much better position now to convince Europe, Japan, China and Russia, and the businesses and banks in these countries, to cooperate with us, at least tacitly, in threatening broader sanctions as the best way to avoid a necessary military option further down the road

Production at Boeing's helicopter plant in suburban Philadelphia was shut down Friday afternoon after a foreign object was found during inspection of an aircraft under production.

Afghan police have arrested 10 Taliban militants involved in an acid attack this month against 15 girls and teachers walking to school in southern Afghanistan, a provincial governor said Tuesday.

Former Osama bin Laden driver Salim Hamdan is being transferred from the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, back to his home country of Yemen, a senior defense official said Monday.

I just wrote an article for the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor (Vol.6(22), Nov. 25, 2008) on the recent serial blasts in Assam (India) and the rise of Ethno-Islamist Terrorism in the region.

Here is an excerpt:

India's Troubled Northeast Region: The Resurgence of Ethno-Islamist Terrorism

The security situation in India's troubled northeast region plumbed new depths in October when two major terror incidents struck Manipur and Assam states. On October 21, nearly 17 people were killed in Imphal and over 30 injured in a powerful bomb blast triggered by suspected militants of the People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK). The militants were believed to be targeting government security forces (The Sangai Express, October 22). A week later, on October 30, neighboring Assam witnessed serial explosions that killed nearly 84 people and left scores of wounded (Assam Tribune, November 3). Suspicion in these attacks focused on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Bangladesh based Harkat ul-Jihad Islami (HuJI) combine. The attacks consisted of ten low and high intensity bomb blasts within a span of 20 minutes in the cities of Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Barapeta and Guwahati. The Assam blasts occurred as recent terror attacks have targeted other parts of India, including Jaipur, Delhi, Ahmadabad and Bangalore (see Terrorism Focus, August 5).

The aim of the perpetrators was a high fatality rate and widespread chaos, as the blasts were aimed at crowded places crammed with office workers and shoppers. Forensic investigations revealed that the bombs used a cocktail of RDX (hexogen), ammonium nitrate, plastic explosives and TNT with high-tech timer devices (Economic Times [India], November 7). For the first time in India, cars laden with explosives were used in the blasts in Guwahati, whereas motorbikes and cycles were used in previous blasts. The trend of using a deadly mixture of explosives, which is a hallmark of Islamist groups like HuJI, is new to the region. HuJI or other Islamist terrorists active in the region (e.g. the Lashkar-e-Toiba or the newly emerged Indian Mujahideen) have been accused of orchestrating a number of such terror strikes in major cities across India in the past. For the first time, however, traces of jihadi footprints are emerging in northeast India.

You may also access the full publicationhere.

The pirates who captured the Saudi oil tanker Sirius Star have broken off negotiations with the ship's owners, apparently insisting they want to talk with a wealthy Virginia woman with close ties to the US military and intelligence communities.