Posted on 2008 under Blogs, CounterTerrorism, Terrorism |
30
Dec
The year 2008 saw the hype fall away from virtual worlds but in contrast social networks are going from strength to strength and are being increasingly used as protest vehicles around the world. While the utility of Facebook and Twitter (using the #griot descriptor to report on the riots in Greece) have been widely reported upon some of the more interesting and interactive information can still be found in Second Life, which bodes well for the future of virtual worlds. Full report and links relating to this phenomena over at the MetaSecurity blog. Whether it be web-forums, Facebook or Second Life, virtual communities will continue to be an increasingly important part of the National Security picture in 2009.
Posted on 2008 under Blogs, CounterTerrorism, Terrorism |
30
Dec
Iran is smartly playing its cards, using its main Sunni and Shiite proxy to create havoc in the region and de facto making it stronger. At this point, Iran’s next step is uncertain. But it is quite possible that Hezbollah will decide to open a second front against Israel. Also the destabilization operations against the Sunni regimes in the region hostile to the Islamic Republic are likely to continue unabated. At this point when it comes to terror, all roads lead to Tehran.
I wrote an article for the Middle East Times analyzing the current situation.
You can read it in full here.
Here is an excerpt:
After the six-month truce with Israel expired on Dec. 19, Hamas decided, or perhaps was urged, to resume its attacks on Israel. Thus Hamas went on a rampage campaign, firing rockets at Israel to create terror and death among Israeli civilians.
As could be expected, Israel reacted the way most countries would when attacked, and to protect its population against a group it considers to be a terrorist organization.
A new war in the region is likely to benefit only one country: Iran.
Indeed, following the model of the summer 2006 war against Israel triggered by the capture of two Israeli soldiers by the Lebanese Shiite organization, Hezbollah, Iran would benefit with a new front opening up.
This time Iran is turning to using its Sunni arm, Hamas. Contrary to what a number of experts in the region profess, Sunni extremists and Shiite extremists have no problem joining forces against a common enemy and putting aside their age-old rivalries.
While Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of the Palestinian Resistance Movement, also known as Hamas, was still alive, he refused to Iran's advances time and again. Yassin was adamant not to engage the Shiites. After his death, Hamas became much more open to Tehran's advances. Recently, Iran has become Hamas' main bankroller and as such wants to have a say in what Hamas should or should not do.
Japan reportedly won't purchase any Marietta-built fighter jets, a development that could jeopardize production of the supersonic plane and 2,000 jobs in Cobb County.
Pakistan closed the main route used to ferry supplies to U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan on Tuesday after launching a fresh offensive against militants in the area.
Israel is considering suspending its Gaza offensive for 48 hours to give Hamas militants an opening to halt their rocket fire, but the threat of a ground offensive remains if the truce does not hold, Israeli officials said Tuesday.
Posted on 2008 under Blogs, CounterTerrorism, Terrorism |
30
Dec
Israel’s operation in Gaza is reaching a critical point. While talking heads will debate grand strategy, the options are limited. Behind the headlines is the crucial issue of how Israel’s national security process works (or doesn’t - in light of the weaknesses revealed in the 2006 Lebanon war). The next moves will demonstrate whether or not Israel has successfully incorporated the lessons from the failures of the 2006 Lebanon War. This is crucial to re-establishing Israeli deterrence.
Strategic Limitations
A true peace agreement with Hamas is not realistic. A quick scan of clips from Hamas’ al-Aqsa network or of statements by Hamas leaders from the Middle East Media Research Institute - particularly horrible are these scenes from Hamas produced children’s television - should disabuse all but the most useful idiots of any notions of a moderate Hamas.
Fatah is theoretically an alternative to Hamas, but has been eliminated from Gaza and has little credibility or capability.
Military options also do not offer definite solutions. Re-occupying Gaza would require tens of thousands of Israeli troops and likely lead to hundreds of Israeli and thousands of Palestinian casualties. The Israelis do not want to pay this price. It also might not work. Hamas might be able to maintain an ongoing, costly insurgency against the Israelis, which would be perceived as a victory. (Hamas has taken lessons from Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel and has prepared and is hoping for an IDF ground campaign.)
Hamas’ supply lines are the tunnels into Egypt. The tunnels themselves are only the endpoint of a vast smuggling network that extends throughout the Sinai and into the heart of Egypt. Egypt is a poor country, the smuggling opportunities are lucrative, and law enforcement is weak. In Kashmir, criminal networks in an impoverished environment have fostered a self-sustaining insurgency. The same situation could occur Gaza.
Ultimately, there are no solutions in Gaza on the immediate horizon. This is a problem Israel will have to manage.
Read the complete post here.
The story that Richard Barr Cayton has told of his Vietnam War service features a torturous march through the jungle in January 1971, his arms tied to a branch across the back of his neck and shoulders. He was a prisoner of war, he said, until a bombing distracted his captors, and he and a fellow soldier escaped.
Well the finalists are announced over at http://2008.weblogawards.org/. I can tell you now that this blog did not make the finalist list, but that is ok. There is a trend in these awards that the ones who get nominated are the really large blogs and popular blogs like Micheal Yon’s and Blackfive, and the newer ones that are fresh and new and different. I really started this blog in 2006 and in that year I was nominated. This year you see new blogs like Big Tobacco, OpFor, and Knee deep in the Hooah for example.
I am totally fine with not being nominated as I have the best award and satisfaction of all. I received it the other day in the email I got which is talked about here.
To me, having my blog be the vehicle that spread the word and generated the support which so directly and urgently supported these guys is awesome. I could not have done it without my friend Scott Kesterson, who is the guy that told me of the needs this team had. I hope he knows how much him letting me know of their needs has helped out the team and some other soldiers who were in mourning.
My congratulations to all of the milbloggers that were nominated. I look forward to casting my vote when voting opens on January 5th, 2009.
The list of blogs is below
From My Position… on the way!
The War on Big Tobacco
Blackfive
Michael Yon
This Ain’t Hell
One Marine’s View
Op For
Army of Dude
Milblogging,com
Knee Deep in the Hooah!
Israel today rejected world appeals for a truce and warned its deadly assault on Gaza could last for weeks as warplanes pummeled Hamas positions for a fourth day and tanks massed on the border.
