The Political Conundrum!

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) has issued an updated leadership "cabinet roster." The roster reads as follows:

- Deputy Emir and Minister of War: "Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, Abdel Moneim al-Badawi"
- Minister of Shariah Councils: "Shaykh Abdul Wahab al-Mashhadani"
- Minister of Public Relations: "Shaykh Mohammed al-Dulaimi"
- Minister for Prisoners and Martyrs: "Shaykh Hassan Jubouri"
- Minister of Security: "Professor Shaykh Abdul Razzaq al-Shammari"
- Minister of Health: "Dr. Shaykh Abdullah Qaisi"
- Minister of Information: "Shaykh Professor Ahmad al-Tai"
- Minister of Petroleum: "Shaykh Osama Laheebi"
- Minister of Finance: "Shaykh Professor Yunis al-Hamdani"

The bleak assessment by NATO and U.S. commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, of the Afghanistan conflict is strikingly similar to a bleak assessment given by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the Colombia conflict in 1998.

While one must be careful not to overdue comparisons of conflicts that have significant differences, I think the parallel shows two things in conflicts where the non-state actors receive haven in neighboring countries and derive much of their funding from the drug trade: 1) One should listen carefully to Gen. McChrystal, particularly on the loss of legitimacy of the Afghan government and 2) the situation is not irreversible, as Colombia has shown.

As a reporter for the Washington Post at the time, I was given access to the report, which predicted the Marxist FARC rebels could take over the country within five years. At the time this is what I wrote, and see if it sounds vaguely familiar:

The Colombian military has proved to be inept, ill-trained and poorly
equipped. Of the 120,000 armed forces members, only 20,000 are equipped and prepared for combat, according to U.S. intelligence sources. Standard military doctrine holds that a regular army needs a 10-to-1 advantage in size to defeat a well-equipped and steadfast insurgency.

The pessimistic assessment of the situation in Colombia, which
produces 80 percent of the world's cocaine and a growing share of
the heroin consumed in the United States, was echoed by Gen.
Charles Wilhelm, chief of the U.S. Southern Command, which is
responsible for U.S. security in Latin America.

"The primary vulnerability of the Colombian armed forces is their
inability to see threats, followed closely by their lack of competence
in assessing and engaging them," Wilhelm told a congressional
hearing on March 31.

At the time, Colombia's electoral campaign had been badly tainted by the fact that the victor, Ernesto Samper, had taken $6 million from the Cali cartel for his electoral campaign. The government had lost much of its legitimacy in the eyes of the middle class, and had already lost it in much of the rural areas where the FARC was strongest.

McChyrstal, in his assessment, echoes the weakness of the local forces and the lack of credibility of the the Karzi government. My full blog is here.

The NEFA Foundation has released a four-part package by NEFA Senior Investigator Claudio Franco (with reporting by Javed Afridi) comprised of:

1.) An analysis titled, "Inside the Mufti Kifayatullah Interview: Competing Voices Within the Taliban Leadership in Pakistan";
2.) A profile of Waliur Rehman (Emir of Mehsud Taliban in South Waziristan Agency);
3.) An exclusive interview with Mufti Kifayatullah (spokesman for the Jemaat-e-Ulema Pakistan-Fazlur in the NWFP);
4.) An exclusive interview with Said Alam Mehsud, a Pashtun nationalist leader widely considered a reliable observer of Mehsud tribal politics.

The interviews are focused on the rivalry between Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rehman, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan commanders who aspire to succeed Baitullah Mehsud, and provide a valuable perspective on the ongoing tussle between Taliban powerbrokers in Pakistan's tribal areas. Dr. Mehsud suggests Al-Qaida's role in the FATA would still be critically important, with the its Arab fighters backing Waliur Rehman and the Uzbek faction in support of Hakimullah's bid for the leadership. A pivotal role is also played by the so-called 'Punjabi Taliban', Sunni sectarian fighters hailing mainly from southern Punjab and affiliated to, or inspired by, SIpah-e-Sahaba, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Jaish-e-Mohammed. In this context, the role of mainstream religious parties such as the Jemaat-e-Ulema Pakistan-Fazlur, cannot be neglected, as they emerge as the only mainstream/institutional actor capable of influencing, and reigning in, the Pakistani Taliban movement.

The four documents can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.

China's military now possesses most of the sophisticated weapon systems found in the arsenals of developed Western nations, the country's defense minister said in comments published Monday. The minister's remarks come ahead of the country's biggest military parade in a decade.

Iran's supreme leader said Sunday that U.S. officials know they are wrongly accusing Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

A Black Hawk helicopter crashed at a major American air base in Iraq, killing one U.S. service member and injuring 12 others, the military said Sunday.

The CIA's harsh interrogations are likely to have damaged the brains of terrorist suspects, diminishing their ability to recall and provide the detailed information the spy agency sought, according to a new scientific paper.

A military judge agreed Monday to another delay in the war crimes trial of five Guantanamo prisoners charged in the Sept. 11 attacks, giving U.S. officials more time to decide how to try them.

An inspection at a Veterans Affairs nursing home in Philadelphia last year turned up conditions placing veterans at imminent risk of harm, including one patient whose leg had to be amputated after maggots were seen falling from his foot.

During his 15 years as CNN's Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntrye made his name as a hard-nosed journalist, but one who took the time to understand stories from the servicemembers' point of view. As a result the military learned to trust him.