The Political Conundrum!

A variety of groups in the Palestinian Territories claim to be affiliated with or inspired by al-Qa`ida. None of these groups, however, have been welcomed into the al-Qa`ida franchise. Moreover, this bottom up phenomenon where local Palestinian groups reach out to al-Qa`ida is not matched by a top down effort by al-Qa`ida’s core leadership or even its established affiliates to create an official al-Qa`ida faction in the Palestinian Territories. Nevertheless, in nearly all of al-Qa`ida’s public statements, the liberation of Palestine is a goal and Israel is denounced as an enemy. Al-Qa`ida’s extensive anti-Israel rhetoric, however, is not matched with the parallel operational focus on targeting Israel.

Instead, it appears that Palestine is employed as a useful lightening rod through which al-Qa`ida can tap into the emotional attachment of Muslims and Arabs worldwide. The place of Palestine and Israel in al-Qa`ida’s speeches and operations is shaped by its need to construct narratives, often focused on specific populations and conflicts, that support its radical and violent agenda. To do this, it must place conflicts throughout the world that involve Muslims into a singular, radical narrative in which Islam in general and Muslims in particular must defend themselves from Western aggression. For al-Qa`ida, the Palestinian cause is a paradigmatic example of this phenomenon. Since the Israel-Palestine conflict is perhaps the single most animating regional conflict for many Arabs and Muslims, its resonanceprovides al-Qa`ida with a powerful rhetorical tool for radicalization, recruitment, and fundraising.

In an article that appears in the latest volume of CTC Sentinel, the online journal of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (where I am an associate fellow), I demonstrate that while al-Qa`ida has always been interested in the Palestinian issue there is a remarkable gap between al-Qa`ida’s rhetoric and its operations targeting Israel. Those few attacks that al-Qa`ida has conducted against Israeli and Jewish targets have been small-scale and half-hearted.

The full article is available here.

There is a well-known saying in Afghanistan: “You can rent an Afghan, but you can’t buy him.”

Yeah I have said that on here several times. It is a very common saying, and even though this may be true in Afghanistan, it does not mean we should be doing it.

The bill includes a Taliban reintegration provision under the Commander’s Emergency Response Program, which is now receiving $1.3 billion. CERP funding also is intended for humanitarian relief and reconstruction projects at commanders’ discretion. The buyout idea, according to the Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is to separate local Taliban from their leaders, replicating a program used to neutralize the insurgency against Americans in Iraq.

I have also said on this blog more times than I can remember that Afghanistan is not Iraq. Wasting our money renting the temporary loyalty of the Afghan man is a complete waste of money and resources that our country cannot afford to waste. This loyalty will only last as long as the money does and then the Afghan man will go back to giving his loyalty to the Taliban by virtue of being paid off or having his or his families’ lives threatened.

Even Nicholas Schmidle sees the fault in this mindset.

“So long as the Americans are keenly aware of this, you’re buying a very, very, very temporary allegiance,” he said. “If that’s the foundation for moving forward, it’s a shaky foundation.”

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/10/28/afghanistan.taliban.pay/index.html

A new tape produced by Al Qaeda’s propaganda blowhards, As Sahab (“The Clouds”), is raising questions about the whereabouts of top leaders in the terror network, including Osama Bin Laden.

The video posted on jihadi websites stars Al Qaeda cleric Abu Yahya al-Libi delivering a sermon for the Muslim holiday Eid, which recently ended. It is a typical al-Libi (“The Libyan”) Armageddon-laced sermon, in which he blasts President Obama as a “black crow” unworthy of the accolades heaped upon him.

“Can a human please Obama and please Allah the Great and Almighty?” al-Libi asks.

The video is sure to receive careful analysis at CIA headquarters given the visuals and al-Libi's woodsy environment, which includes singing cicadas.

He is videotaped outdoors speaking before an audience including an intentionally blurred-out figure who bears a striking resemblance to Osama Bin Laden, though “his identity cannot be confirmed,” the SITE Intelligence Group concluded.

“If this is Osama Bin Laden, it would be the first time video of him has been released since 2007 and then before that 2004,” a statement by another private terrorism research group, IntelCenter, said.

U.S. intelligence officials are highly skeptical Bin Laden attended al-Libi’s sermon.

Please see my full post on the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

The Iraqi Parliament convened on Thursday afternoon, but the most important item, a debate on a law to cover voting the January 16 parliamentary elections, was not on the agenda.

A U.S. official says an American sailor fired three accidental shots from a machine gun aboard a Navy ship moored in a Polish port. No one was injured.

A federal judge in Illinois is expected to decided whether to send an admitted al-Qaida member to prison or grant his lawyers' demands to set him free.

A top German general said Thursday that a NATO investigation of a Sept. 4 airstrike against a pair of hijacked Afghan tanker trucks showed the attack was appropriate even though it led to civilian casualties.

A car bomb in Pakistan that killed dozens of people in a crowded marketplace comes as American officials grow increasingly confident that the Pakistani army is making progress against Islamic extremists in the country's tribal region.

On Tuesday I testified before three Subcommittees of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on the issue of Iran's involvement in Latin America. My oral testimony is a bit more detailed on Iranian banks in Ecuador, which I am including here.

The general consensus of those testifying (links to the the testimonies of all the witnesses can be found here under the hearing notice) was that Iran's penetration presents a strategic and under appreciated threat to both the democratic institutions of the region and the United States.

Iran's sponsorship of Hezbollah and Chávez's sponsorship of the FARC, and the history of both terrorist groups in reaching out to other non-state organizations for learning and cross-training is of particularly troublesome.

One of the factors that I think is important to point out in all this discussion is that the leaders of Bolivarian Revolution, and Chávez in particular, are not efficient in what they do or particularly coherent and consistent in how they behave. That is to say, Chávez does not necessarily have the broad control over all aspects of Venezuelan political life, nor does his government execute very well.

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the world, and an oil-rich nation is suffering from both crippling electrical blackouts and water shortages in its main cities.

One of the factors that the Iranians and Cubans bring to the Boliviarian nations is a different sense of discipline and structure, making certain elements of the government far more accomplished at what they do. This is particularly true in the area of internal security and the suppression of dissent and control of the media. My full blog is here.