The Political Conundrum!

The good news yesterday was the conviction on all counts of Monzar al Kassar,the international weapons trafficker and friend of numerous terrorist organizations.

Al Kassar and his accomplice, Luis Moreno Godoy were convicted in New York of conspiracy to murder U.S. nationals; conspiracy to murder U.S. officers and employees; conspiracy to acquire and export anti-aircraft missiles; conspiracy to provide material support and resources to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), a designated foreign terrorist organization; and money laundering. The convictions represent the first time anyone has been charged with and convicted of the anti-aircraft missile statute.

Al Kassar, like Viktor Bout and others, are part of the shadowy world of facilitators that work across criminal and terrorist organizations, supplying them with what they need-from weapons to passports to money laundering services.

Successfully targeting these shadow facilitators hurts both groups and is one of the more effective ways of crippling the terrorist/criminal enterprises they empower.

As I wrote when he was arrested (and you can find the indictment and other articles here too), the arrest sprang from a sting operation by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), to whom he thought he was selling surface-to-air missiles which he hoped would kill Americans. The US won al Kassar's extradition from Spain in order to stand trial in the United States.

It was the same template the DEA used to arrest Viktor Bout in Thailand. The conviction augers well for what would be a very similar case against Bout, if he ever gets here. My full blog is here.

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new statement from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) rejecting Afghan President Hamid Karzai's solemn offer to Mullah Omar to "guarantee his security and safety" if he would agree to willingly participate in peace negotiations. The Taliban assert that "Karzai and his masters should know, personal immunity and power obtainment is not an issue for Mullah Mohammad Omar Mujahid." Further, "Our people may remember that at the first months following the American invasion of Afghanistan, Mr. Karzai was reiterating the same appeals and polished assertions for members and the rank and file of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, claiming no member of Taliban, whether senior or junior, would be harassed merely by being a member of Taliban. Then, we saw with our own eyes that thousands of defenseless Taliban were arrested and kept in containers and dungeons of Qallae Jangi. They were consequently mercilessly martyred -- an unforgettable tragedy reminiscent of Mr. Karzai’s retracting his promise... one can conclude that the hackneyed words and assertions by Mr. Karzai are aimed at throwing dust in the eyes of the people. Ironically, Karzai has not the authority to take up the dialogue by his own nor can tell the nation the truth.”

A copy of the statement can be accessed on the NEFA Foundation website.

(Co-Editor's Note: Walid Phares was interviewed on C-SPAN on November 20 about this tape - watch here.)

As observers were awaiting the release of the "official" al Qaeda position regarding the election of Barack Obama as the new President of the United States, seasoned experts on the Jihadist movement had little doubts as to the substance of the main message. As I have outlined in my appearances on Arabic television channels since November 4, Bin Laden or his second in command was expected to declare that their "Jihad" will continue despite the election of an African American President and despite Obama’s intention to withdraw from Iraq. Ayman Zawahiri did just that on Wednesday in his latest message to his supporters and his enemies: even if the war ends in Iraq, the global war will continue everywhere.

The tape was expected to appear a couple weeks after the election because of al Qaeda's method of monitoring the reactions of the international community, of the Arab and Muslim world and also of other Islamist authorities. The Bin Laden-Zawahiri style is to give the "last word," like a Caliph would. The points raised in the tape were almost all predicted by experts familiar with the Jihadi-combat mind set: Although a new president was elected - one who would reverse some of Bush’s policies, the new president will devise new strategies to defeat al Qaeda.. Zawahiri isn't buying the version proposed by other anti-American critics of Washington's War on Terror. Most of Europe's left, the Arab authoritarian regimes, and the Islamist fundamentalist establishment have all welcomed the news of an Obama victory and are tailoring new proposals for the region's future (of course to their advantage). But not al Qaeda. That's why this Zawahiri message is important. It is telling the world and allies that there will be no respite in the conflict.

The al Qaeda’s number two had to address the election of a Black President of the United States because of the two massive changes this choice has brought to the Jihadist agenda: On the one hand, Obama is very popular in the eyes of international public opinion; on the other hand the President elect is planning on withdrawing from Iraq and pushing forward in Afghanistan. All this changes al Qaeda's game. Zawahiri's tape had to address these "challenges" as pressure was mounting among Jihadists to deal with this election. Hence, the main points presented by the audio message are as follows:

(Co-Editor's Note: Evan was interviewed on MSNBC about this on November 19 - watch here.)

During several recent conferences concerning extremist radicalization and the web, I have frequently commented that the Internet can often serve as a double-edged sword for terrorist organizations: while it may certainly help facilitate their recruitment and communications, the web also offers a wide interactive arena for dissent within these organizations, and it increases the likelihood of overly-talkative terrorist leaders becoming ensnared in awkward Sarah Palin-like moments -- caught in the spotlight by virtue of their own language.

Perhaps no one within the senior ranks of Al-Qaida has demonstrated this trend better than its own Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Liberated from the shackles of Al-Jazeera by Al-Qaida's access directly to the Internet, Dr. al-Zawahiri has issued dozens upon dozens of audio and video recordings over the past seven years from various hideouts presumably along the Pakistani-Afghan border. Yet, seemingly, the more recordings he has issued, the more he has dragged himself into quarreling with other jihadi leaders around the globe. In the past two years, al-Zawahiri has strongly criticized the Palestinian Hamas movement for "abandon[ing] the movement of martyrdom operations" in exchange for a tense peace with Israel. For its part, Hamas has not taken kindly to Dr. al-Zawahiri's arrogant "advice." When asked about the frequent recordings from al-Zawahiri attacking Hamas, one Hamas spokesman replied, "We do not tell Al-Dhawahry [Al-Zawahiri] what to do in Afghanistan since we are not aware of his situation...His judgments and opinions are his; but they are not correct. More importantly, we are not awaiting approval or blessing from anyone except Allah." A second voice from Hamas, Osama Hamdan, was even quoted by the official website of the Muslim Brotherhood on the matter: "Al-Zawahiri's statements and criticism towards Hamas movement have no effect on the movement's attitude... What Al-Zawahiri said isn't a criticism, it is an unjustified defamation and attack against Hamas movement and its leaders."

Nor have the Palestinians been the only ones subject to the wrath of al-Zawahiri. In recent years, as Al-Qaida's hopes for the jihad in Iraq have abruptly faded into the sunset, Dr. al-Zawahiri has published a box set of multimedia messages condemning "secular" and "nationalist" Iraqi insurgents for abandoning their Al-Qaida brethren, and ordering them to "obey" Al-Qaida's local leadership in Iraq. One can only forgive their natural skepticism at why Al-Qaida would select a Jordanian, and then an Egyptian to lead its organization inside of Iraq. Earlier this year, I asked the Sunni insurgent group known as the "Al-Rashideen Army"--an avowedly jihadi group--to explain why it had failed to acknowledge Dr. al-Zawahiri's recorded orders. A spokesman from the group responded, “There is a problem in Tibet for China—is it possible for me to prescribe the solutions for their problem? We are a people in this region for 6000 year before Christ, end[ing] with Islam, and we are fully capable of rolling and managing our own affairs. We do not need others to tell us what to do.” When I posed the same question to the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI), the insurgents scoffed, "The statements of al-Zawahiri do not obligate us whatsoever, and the errors of Al-Qaida in regards to spilling the blood of the innocent are more numerous than can possibly be covered in a single response, statement, or interview."

Now, Dr. al-Zawahiri has begun his assault on the U.S. President-Elect -- before Barack Obama has even taken office. Clearly, Al-Qaida is seeking to undermine the surge of popularity and enthusiasm for the Obama victory that has spread throughout the developing world, and particularly in Africa -- where Al-Qaida has strong vested interests in at least two ongoing military conflicts. There certainly are ways to accomplish this -- as was demonstrated by Al-Qaida's skillful use of imagery of Barack Obama at the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem. However, by indulging in divisive labels such as "House Slave" or "House Negro", Dr. al-Zawahiri has strayed from being merely disrespectful into being entirely disreputable and dishonorable. By playing the race card so quickly and so brazenly, al-Zawahiri may end up causing backlash against Al-Qaida in the very constituencies he is seeking to woo. It also invites the question, how is this a legitimate criticism coming from the senior leadership of Al-Qaida, which is dominated almost solely by Arab Egyptians and Saudis? Moreover, what would Malcolm X have thought of an organization, Al-Qaida, that at one time offered a higher salary to its Arab membership than its Black African adherents? One might imagine that the financial guru responsible for overseeing this inequitable arrangement -- Egyptian national Mustafa Abu al-Yazid -- would have been punished for his bigoted actions. In fact, al-Yazid has since been promoted to the number 3 position in Al-Qaida, right behind Dr. al-Zawahiri. This is hardly the type of image that Al-Qaida would like to see proliferate in critical regions adjacent to jihadi conflict zones in Somalia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania.

The recent, audacious hijacking of a Saudi oil tanker by Somali pirates, with at least some of the ransom money destined for Islamist militants, shows just how quickly the future has arrived.

The criminal-terrorist groups on the Somali coast (largely controlled by radical Islamists of the al-Shabaab group, a self-declared affiliate of al Qaeda central) have in essence declared themselves at war as a joint enterprise, against the rest of the world. Even the Saudis are angry enough to try to join international efforts to combat the groups fed by their own theological teachings.

These loose-knit groups now join the FARC in Colombia, the Taliban in Afghanistan/Pakistan and others as full-fledged terrorist-criminal enterprises that are the future. I have long warned that this threat will, unfortunately, have to be a tier-one priority for the incoming administration. These latest developments show just how dangerous it is to not deal with these issues in their infancy.

Unlike the FARC and Taliban, which rely on drugs, the Somali groups have used innovative thinking to generate their wealth. This too, is what we will see more and more of, as groups intersect along the terrorist-criminal pipeline and find overlapping interests and talents.

They took what was at hand, a vital artery in world commerce-including oil shipments-and found the weakness in the system, namely, a complete lack of protection of valuable cargo flowing past them.

The pirates, acting largely from economic motives, now hold a staggering amount of wealth in their hands. The operative concern has to be not only the criminal funds, but the use of these funds to arm and support radical Islamists. Al-Shabaab is likely to share the wealth, and we will see them suddenly armed with new, sophisticated weapons and communications as they move to finish off the weak and ineffective transitional government.

Already the hijackings are having a huge effect on commerce through one of the most obvious choke points in the world's shipping commerce. My full blog is here.

Yesterday afternoon, the Washington Institute hosted Dr. Tom Fingar, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, as part of a speaker series we've been running with senior US government counterterrorism officials. Dr. Fingar gave a preview of the soon to be released report, "Global Trends 2025," which will offer the US government's assessment about what the world may look like in 17 years from now. Dr. Fingar focused his remarks on the Middle East, which Fingar noted will still be an "arc of instability" at that time, and therefore still on the front burner for US policymakers. Dr. Fingar covered a wide range of Middle East-related issues in his talk, including terrorism, energy, water/natural resources, nuclear programs, and the potential implications of the growing "youth bulge."

According to Dr. Fingar, the timing of the release of this report was not accidental. They hope that the incoming Obama administration will review and consider the report in the period before they take office, when they still have more time to focus on broad, strategic issues, and when the daily crush of the immediate taskings in the "in-boxes" is not so overwhelming. Dr. Fingar noted that many of the broad trends outlined in the report are not irreversible and that the incoming administration could take steps and develop policies which could change the projected course (for better and for worse).

The transcript of the event is available at this link:

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new audio recording from Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri released on November 19, 2008, titled "On the Parting of Bush and the Arrival of Obama.” During the recording, al-Zawahiri issued a message to U.S. President-Elect Obama, warning him of the "heavy legacy of failure and crimes [which] awaits you" and accusing Obama of having the "same criminal American mentality towards the world and towards the Muslims" as the Bush administration. Zawahiri added, "in you, and in Colin Powell, Rice, and your likes, the words of Malcolm X (may Allah have mercy on him) concerning 'House Negroes' are confirmed. You... must appreciate, as you take over the presidency of America during its Crusade against Islam and Muslims, that you are neither facing individuals nor organizations, but are facing a Jihadi awakening and renaissance which is shaking the pillars of the entire Islamic world."

A complete English transcript of al-Zawahiri's remarks can be accessed via the NEFA Foundation website.

Last week, Andy Cochran, wisely urged the incoming administration to develop the legal and institutional capabilities needed to deal with mobile banking. There is no question that terrorists and criminals will demonstrate tremendous creativity in stealing from mobile banking or cel-phone payment systems or using these new technologies to transfer and launder money. Time and again, the Internet being only the latest example, terrorists and criminals have shown themselves extraordinarily talented at adapting the newest technology to their nefarious needs.

But just as important is developing a framework to police this new technology is the maddening question of why we (that is the United States and other agencies charged with counter-terror missions worldwide) cannot be as creative or quick to take advantage of these technologies.

An Army Captain friend told me (this was several years ago) that training the Iraqi military was bedeviled by Iraq’s lack of a modern banking system. Recruits, unsurprisingly, had signed up to receive a salary. But because Iraq had no banking system, they had to hitchhike home in order to support their families. It was during these trips that the soldiers became vulnerable to kidnappings and executions. Presumably this problem has been ameliorated, but it is easy to see how a mobile banking system could have been extremely helpful in this situation.

Whatever ills will result from mobile banking, they will also be an enormous boon to people worldwide and could be an important tool for counter-terrorism and related development issues.

Read the full post here.

There continues to be some discussion and rejection of the idea that terrorists would be able to exploit new technology platforms such as social networking and virtual worlds. In a recent post the blogger Abu Aardvark (aka Marc Lynch from GW University) goes some way in debunking ideas surrounding terrorist use of social networking, Wiki’s and virtual worlds. He further states that Al Qaeda is now behind the curve in using the area of user-generated content and interactivity. While, the aardvark’s media analysis relating to ‘al-Qaeda outreach’ appears to be sound I think he misses a fundamental point about terrorists and technology.

The defining feature of terrorism and technology is its adaptive quality. It is highly unlikely that individual terrorists or terrorist groups would exactly replicate the mainstream functions of the technology abu aardvark highlights in his post. It is more likely they would take certain elements from the various innovations and mesh them together or otherwise distort them. So an al-Qaeda Facebook isn’t going to happen anytime soon but using the system to identify IDF soldiers for possible assassination already has. Similarly an ‘AQThirdlife’, which replicates the virtual world Second Life seems unlikely but using some of its key features still seems probable. The virtual money transfer aspect continues to be a high on most peoples list of concerns (this is discussed in a recent SSRN paper written by Stephen Landman, Funding Bin Laden’s Avatar: A proposal for the regulation of Virtual Hawalas, which he has kind enough to share with me). Aardvark’s point about an AQThird life also fails to account for phenomena such as the virtual caliphate, which is running in the UK, where users log into areas to see and hear sermons by dead or expelled radical preachers - there continues to be a market for extremism and virtual exposure to it is potentially more powerful than real exposure.

As ever the central point is that given rapid and increasing virtualization flexible thinking and planning is required to conceptualize the next form of terrorist threat -- blogs appear to be a great enabler of this practice.

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a video recording from an emerging Palestinian Al-Qaida faction based in the Gaza Strip, Jaish al-Ummah ("The Army of the Islamic Nation"), claiming responsibility for rocket attacks on the town of Ashkelon and other Israeli targets on November 14, 2008. The video includes footage of the purported launch of the rockets, and a statement read by two masked militants in front of the official banner used by Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI). The spokesmen indicated that the rocket bombardment, labeled "The Battle of Abdul Rashid Ghazi", had been carried out in honor of the late head cleric at Lal Masjid (a.k.a. "The Red Mosque") in Islamabad, Pakistan. Ghazi was killed on July 10, 2007 during a raid on the besieged Islamabad mosque by Pakistani military forces. During their recorded communiqué, the two Jaish al-Ummah militants also hailed the victories of their fellow "brethren" in various other locales, including Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

The video can be viewed on the NEFA Foundation website.